中国与“一带一路”沿线国家的双边贸易成本研究

Bilateral Trade Cost between China and Countries along BAR

本文对中国与"一带一路"沿线国家在1995—2013年间的双边贸易成本的演进特征、发展趋势及影响因素进行了考察。研究表明:(1)从绝对值水平来看,在本文的考察期内中国与"一带一路"沿线地区的农林牧渔部门的双边贸易成本最高,整体的双边贸易成本次之,而制造业部门的双边贸易成本则最低;从变化趋势来看,中国与"一带一路"沿线地区的农林牧渔部门、制造业部门以及整体的双边贸易成本在1995—2013年间呈现不同程度的下降趋势;(2)划分子区域考察发现,中国与沿线绝大部分区域间的双边贸易成本在考察期内基本呈下降态势,但与东北亚、南亚地区的整体和制造业部门的双边贸易成本以及与西亚北非地区的农林牧渔部门的双边贸易成本在此期间出现上升趋势;(3)中国与沿线大多数国家整体、农林牧渔部门以及制造业部门的双边贸易成本均呈下降的态势,但与部分国家的双边贸易成本呈上扬的态势;(4)从影响因素来看,文化地理因素趋近、同为世贸组织成员国以及签署区域贸易协定均有助于降低中国与沿线国家的双边贸易成本。基于上述发现,本文最后提出了降低中国与沿线国家间的双边贸易成本的若干政策建议。

Based on ESCAP-World Bank trade cost database, this article explores the characteristics, trend and determinants of bilateral trade cost between China and the countries along BAR over the period 1995-2013. The results show that： （1） During the investigation period, bilateral trade cost of the sectors of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing between China and the countries along BAR is the highest, followed by total goods and manufacturing sector, and the bilateral trade cost of the sectors of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing, total goods and manufacturing sector, between China and the countries along BAR show different degrees of downward trend respectively; （2） The sub-region investigation finds that, bilateral trade cost between China and most of the sub-regions decreases over times, however, bilateral trade cost of total goods and manufacturing sector, between China and Northeast Asia and South Asia shows upward trend, and the bilateral trade cost of the sectors of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing between China and the region of West Asia and North Africa also increases. （3） Despite of the sectors of agriculture, hunting, forestry and fishing, total goods and manufacturing sector, bilateral trade cost between China and most countries decreases over times. （4） Cultural and geographical proximity help reduce bilateral trade cost between China and the countries along BAR, and the WTO membership and regional trade agreements also help to reduce bilateral trade cost. Based on these findings above, this paper concludes with some policy suggestions which aim to reduce bilateral trade cost between China and the countries along BAR.