沿海沉箱码头的作业风险分析

Analysis of Operational Risk of Coastal Caisson Wharf

本文应用DHF综合评价方法对沿海沉箱码头施工过程中的风险进行分析.首先,采用德尔菲法建立沉箱码头风险因素评价指标体系;然后,使用层次分析法构造影响因素的加权矩阵;最后,利用模糊数学评价法得到各风险因素的隶属度,得出沉箱自身因素是对沉箱码头作业风险影响最大的因素,并提出相应的应对措施.通过该方法能够科学合理地综合评价港口安全风险状况,为相关港口部门改善港口安全状况提供决策依据.

This paper analyzes the risk of coastal caisson wharf in construction process by using DHF synthet- ic evaluation method. Firstly, using the Delphi method a caisson wharf risk factor evaluation index system is established; and then a weighting matrix is structured by using structure factors of analytic hierarchy process （AHP）. Finally, by using the fuzzy evaluation method the memberships of various risk factors are obtained~ and the greatest risk factor affecting jobs is obtained too. Meanwhile, some appropriate countermeasures are proposed. The results are scientific and rational for coastal wharfs, so as to provide basis for decision making in their construction process.