储蓄率居高不下的人口年龄结构影响分析——基于微观家庭的养老和子女教育储蓄动机的研究

Analysis on the Impact of Population Age Structure on High Saving Rates——Based on the Savings Motive of Household Pension and Children's Education in Microscopic Families

本文首先利用孤波理论分析了人口年龄结构变化所产生的经济效应,结果发现前期生育率的高峰和低谷必会转化为当下的出生波、教育波、就业波、老龄波等一系列社会孤波,对储蓄率、教育投资率、养老支出等经济变量造成深远影响。然后建立了一个包含养老储蓄、家庭教育投资、代际转移支付和预期寿命内生化的一般均衡世代交叠模型,通过数值模拟发现,在当前生育率水平下,预期寿命延长对家庭教育投资率、养老储蓄率和经济增长率的影响是非单调性的。理性行为人对子女"投资品"属性的认可程度超过"消费品"属性,导致家庭教育投资率和养老储蓄率居高不下。由于非单调性经济增长路径的拐点来得相对较早,高储蓄率不利于经济增长。

This paper first uses the solitary wave theory to analyzes the economic effect of population aging struc- tural changes. The results show that the the previous fertility peak and valley will eventually be converted to a series of solitary waves, such as those of birth, education, employment and aging, which has a far-reaching impact on the economic variables such as the savings rate, the rate of investment in education and pension expenditure. This article builds a general equilibrium overlapping generation model which contains the endogenous variables of retirement sav- ings, family investment in education, inter-generational transfer and life expectancy. Through the numerical simula- tion, it finds that under the current fertility level, the effect of prolonged life expectancy on the rate of family educa- tion investment, retirement savings and economic growth rate is non-monotonic. People with rational behavior show more recognition on the ＂investment＂ property of children than the ＂consumer goods＂ property, which lead to the con- tinuously high rate of family education investment and pension savings. Asthe inflection point of the non-monotonic growth path comes relatively early, the high savings rate is not conducive to economic growth.