FTA背景下中澳农产品贸易发展研究——基于贸易关系、非均衡性和增长潜力的分析

Agricultural Products Trade Development Between China and Australia upon the FTA—Analysis Based on Trade Relations,Non-equilibrium and Growth Potentiality

本文利用1996—2013年UN Comtrade数据库中农产品贸易数据,采用产业内贸易指数、出口相似性指数、贸易特化指数、贸易强度指数,从贸易关系、非均衡性和增长潜力三方面分析中国与澳大利亚的农产品贸易发展情况。结果显示:中澳农产品贸易出口结构差异大、互补性强;中澳农产品在双边贸易和世界市场上不存在激烈的相互竞争;中澳都在各具优势的产品出口方面给对方造成逆差压力,农产品贸易具有很强的不均衡性;中澳两国农产品贸易关系紧密,具有良好的增长潜力。

By using HS96 2-digit agricultural products trade data retrieved from UN Comtrade Database from 1996 to 2013, this paper adopts the intra-industry trade index, export similarity index, trade, specialization index and trade intensity index to analyzethe agricultural trade development between China and Australia m terms of the trade relation, non-equilibrium and growth potentiality. The results show that there are huge differences in the export structure and strong supplementation of the agricultural trade between China and Australia. Strong competition is not found in the bi- lateral trade of agricultural products between China and Australia and in the world market China and Australia give each other the deficit pressure with advantages of the agricultural products they exported. There is a strong non-equilibri- um of agricultural trade between China and Australia. The agricultural trade tie between China andAustralia is close, indicating that there is huge growth potential of agricultural tradebetween China and Australia in the future.