基于AHP-EWM方法的福建省农业气象灾害风险区划

Risk division of agro-meteorological disasters in Fujian Province based on AHP-EWM method

基于灾害风险分析原理,通过分析福建的重大农业气象灾害种类和风险等级指标,构建了影响福建农业的致灾因子危险性、承灾体脆弱性和防灾减灾能力的风险指标体系;采用AHP-EWM方法赋予各指标权重,利用加权综合法计算综合风险指数,应用GIS技术实现了农业气象灾害风险区划。结果表明:福建省重度以上的农业气象灾害综合风险区主要分布在福建东南部沿海县市,西北部的武夷山市、光泽县、建宁县和泰宁县,东北部的柘荣县、罗源县和福鼎市,西南部的武平县和上杭县;中度风险区主要分布在福建东部和西部两个区域中除重度以上灾害风险县市以外的大部分县市;其余区域属于轻度灾害风险区,主要集中在呈东北—西南走向的中间区域地带。

Based on disaster risk analysis theory and analysis of significant agro-meteorological disaster types and risk grade indexes, a risk index system for Fujian agriculture was established including potential hazard of disaster- causing factors, vulnerability of hazard-bearing body and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. And index weight was determined by the AHP-EWM method, comprehensive risk index was calculated by weighted synthesis, agro-meteorological disaster risk zoning was given by GIS technology. The results showed that, the integrated risk zones of severe agro-meteorological disasters in Fujian Province were mainly distributed in southeast coastal cities and counties, northwest areas of Wuyishan City, Guangze County, Jianning County and Taining County, northeast areas of Zherong County, Luoyuan County and Fuding City , and southwest areas of Wuping County and Shanghang County located. The medium-risk zones were mainly distributed in most counties in the east and west of Fujian Province except those counties and cities with severe disaster risk. The remaining zones were mild disaster risk ones which were mainly concentrated on the central zones stretching from northeast to southwest.