基于SVAR模型的福建省人力资源、贸易与经济增长的关系

A Study on Fujian Human Resources,Trade and Economic Growth Based on SVAR Model Research

采用SVAR的分析框架研究了人力资源、贸易和经济增长之间的动态关系,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解技术检验了福建省人力资源素质提升对贸易及经济增长的动态冲击效应及贡献率.实证结果表明,积极的外贸政策确实促进经济增长,而经济增长对贸易增长的反映存在时滞.另外,通过方差分解得出,贸易增长对经济增长的贡献度9.38%,短期内贸易政策对人力资本的贡献度更大,但从长期看,人力资本对经济增长的贡献度更大.

This article adopts the analysis framework of SVAR to study the human resource, the dy- namic relationship between trade and economic growth, and uses impulse response function and vari- ance decomposition technology test of Fujian human resources quality promotion of trade and the im- pact dynamic effect and contribution rate of economic growth.The empirical results show that the pos- itive foreign trade policy is to promote economic growth, but there is a lag of reflection of trade growth by economic growth. On the other hand, through variance decomposition, trade growth contributed 9.38% of economic growth. Over the short term, trade policy to the human capital contributes more than the human capital, but in the long term, the human capital contributes greater than economic growth.