福建省“十三五”节能目标地区分解的量化研究

A Quantitative Study of the Allocation of Energy Saving Targets in Fujian Province Over 2015-2019

基于Theil指数分析福建省能源消耗强度区域差异,结果表明:2007-2014年福建省区域内部能源消耗强度水平相近,区域之间的能耗强度分化是全省总体差异扩大的主要原因.基于2007-2014年全省能源消耗和经济发展数据,构建了9大设区市万元产值能源消耗随人均GDP变化的环境学习曲线(ELC),以所建立的环境学习曲线为依据,预测了2020年能源消耗强度和节能潜力,并通过计算各市区能耗削减目标和分担率对地区节能目标分解进行研究,结果表明:泉州和福州能耗高、单位产值节能效率高,节能分担率较高;厦门、漳州和莆田能耗强度低,节能潜力也小;三明、龙岩和南平能耗强度依然很高,节能减排任务重、潜力大;宁德市应制定适当的节能目标.

Regional disparity of energy consumption intensity among different region in Fujian province was studied based on Theil index.The analysis indicated that the within-region energy consumption in- tensity was similar, and the total disparity of energy consumption intensity was primarily due to be- tween-region inequalities.Based on energy consumption and economic development data from 2006 to 2013,environment learning curve of energy consumption per ten thousand Yuan production value and GDP per capita were built in 9 regions. According to the environment learning curve of energy con- sumption,the energy consumption intensity and energy consumption reducing potential were forecas- ted,then the target of energy consumption mitigation and contribution rates in 2020 were recalculated. The allocation of energy saving targets analysis indicated that the energy consumption mitigation and contribution rates were high in Fuzhou and Quanzhou,the energy consumption intensity and reducing potential were small in Xiamen, Zhangzhou and Putian, while the energy consumption intensity and reducing potential were big in Longyan, Shanming and Nanping, the appropriate energy saving target should be set in Ningde.