城镇居民恩格尔系数降速趋缓成因研究——基于LES-LA/AIDS两阶段模型的实证

Research on the Causes of Slowing Down Engel Coefficient of Urban Residents: Based on Two Stage Model of the LES-LA/AIDS

恩格尔定律表明随着居民生活水平的提高,恩格尔系数会逐渐下降,然而近年来,我国城镇居民恩格尔系数降速放缓,从理论上与食物收入弹性缺乏相矛盾。文章从在恩格尔系数中扮演重要角色的食品消费中居民行为特征变动中分析恩格尔系数变动的原因,在考虑城镇化背景、政府干预程度及地区差异的基础上,建立两阶段LES-LA/AIDS需求系统模型,对我国城镇居民七大类消费需求和八种食品项目的消费需求进行分析。主要研究结论是,城镇居民消费结构正在从生存型向享受、发展型转变;城镇化对居民食品消费结构产生显著影响;不同地区之间食品消费结构具有各自的明显特点;消费结构的变动及其所对应的较大支出弹性是造成恩格尔系数变动趋缓的主要原因。最终提出相关对策建议。

Opinions vary about Engel coefficient; however,in recent years,the Engel coefficient of urban residents in China has slowed down,which is in contradiction with the lack of elasticity of food income. The Engel coefficient plays an important role in the behavior of residents in the food consumption,and according to it,this paper analyzes the reasons of the change of Engel coefficient. On the basis of considering the background of urbanization,the degree of government intervention and regional differences,the two stage LES- AIDS demand system model has been established to analyze the 7 kinds of urban resident consumption demand and 8 kinds of food items in China.The main research concludes that the consumption structure of urban residents is from the survival type to the enjoyment,the development type; the urbanization has a significant impact on the food consumption structure of residents,while the food consumption structure has its own distinct characteristics. The change of consumption structure and the corresponding large expenditure elasticity are the main cause of the slowing down of Engel＇s coefficient.Finally it puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions