中国区域碳排放、经济增长与福利关系比较研究

Comparative Study on Nexus among Carbon Emissions, Economic Growth and Welfare among Different Regions in China

对1995--2012年中国30省份的人均CO2排放、人均GDP与人文发展指数进行单位根检验，并对30省份的平稳面板数据进行格兰杰因果关系检验，研究结果表明：经济增长和福利均为碳排放的单向格兰杰原因；经济增长和福利之间为双向格兰杰因果关系；资源型省份在取得与非资源型省份同样的经济增长时，将比非资源型省份产生较多的碳排放，同时资源型省份在取得福利水平提高时碳排放有同向变动趋势，而非资源型省份的福利水平与碳排放呈反向变动趋势。

This paper makes Unit Root test and Flat panel granger causality test for COz emissions per capita, GDP per capita and Human Development Index of China 30 provinces and autonomous regions from 1995 to 2012. The results indicate that： Economic growth and Welfare are unidirectional Granger cause of carbon emissions; There is bidirectional Granger causality between economic growth and welfare; Resource-based provinces in the same economic growth, with the resource-based provinces will produce more carbon emissions than the resource-based provinces, Resource-based provinces at the same time making the welfare level will make carbon same change trend, rather than the welfare level of resource- based provinces and reverse change trend to the carbon emissions.