中国城镇居民能源消费反弹效应动态分析与政策研究

Dynamic Analysis and Policy Research in Rebound Effect of Chinese Urban Residents' Energy Consumption

能源和环境的双重约束日益成为制约中国经济发展的重要障碍,以提高能源效率为核心的低碳经济为解决这一矛盾开辟了新的途径。然而,能源效率的提高可能增加能源的消耗而产生潜在的"反弹",使传统提高能源效率的政策措施受到严峻的挑战。文章在深度剖析能源反弹效应的诱发成因和作用机理的基础上,将反弹效应解耦成价格弹性产生的直接效应和收入弹性引起的间接效应,首次对我国居民消费能源反弹效应进行量化分析。实证结果表明,间接效应是导致能源消费反弹效应变化的根本原因,居民消费质量的提高是刺激能源消费的重要动力。最后在充分考虑反弹效应对能源消费的影响下,指出节能减排应建立以市场为主,政府行政为辅的发展机制。

The dual constraints of energy and the environment increasingly becoming an important obstacle to China＇s economic development, as the core of a low-carbon economy, improving the energy efficiency has opened up a new avenue to solve this conflict. However, the improvement of energy efficiency may increase energy consumption and generate potential ＂bounce＂, making the traditional policy measures for improving energy efficiency encountered new challenges. Based on induced-depth analysis of the causes and mechanism on energy rebound effect, this paper decoupled the rebound effect into the direct effects caused by the price elasticity and the indirect effects caused by the income elasticity, it also quantitatively analyzed the rebound effect of residents＇ energy consumption for the first time. The empirical results showed that indirect effects are the root cause of the change in energy consumption rebound effect, the improvement of residents＇ consumption quality is an important driving force to stimulate energy consumption. Finally, taking full account of rebound effects on energy consumption, the paper pointed out that the development mechanism for energy saving should be mainly based on the market and then take the government administration additionally.