煤炭消费对中国PM_(2.5)污染影响的实证分析

The Impact of Coal Consumption on PM_(2.5) Pollution in China

中国经济快速发展的同时，环境污染尤其是大气污染中的PM2.5污染日益严重。为从污染源头探讨现阶段中国PM2.5污染的经济因素，文章基于环境科学实验证据将PM2.5的主要污染源转换为经济变量，并在控制其他污染因素的情况下，利用2000-2010年中国省级层面PM2.5年均浓度数据分析煤炭消费对中国PM2.5污染的影响。实证结果表明，在各种污染源中，煤炭消费量和以煤碳比重体现的中国能源消费结构对各省市PM2.5年均浓度的影响贡献最大，是PM2.5污染的最主要来源；而建筑业扬尘对PM2.5污染在省级层面不明显，但在直辖市层面较为显著。因此，治理中国现阶段的PM2.5污染关键在于逐步降低能源消费中对煤炭的依赖，注重利用技术进步提高煤炭等能源的利用效率。此外，结果还暗示了大城市降低PM2.5污染需要进一步优化产业结构，降低建筑业施工扬尘和提高车辆尾气排放标准。

With the rapid development of China＇s economy, environmental pollution, especially the air pollution of PM2.5, is becoming more serious. In order to study the economic factors of PM2.5 pollution in China, based on the experimental evidence of environmental science, this paper converts main pollution sources of PM2.5 into economic variables. By using the PM2.5 annual data of 2000~2010 in China, we try to analyze the impact of coal consumption on the PM2.5 pollution. The empirical results show that among various sources of pollution, coal consumption and the proportion of coal in the energy consumption structure contribute most to the annual average concentration of PM2.5 in various provinces and cities. However, the impact of construction dust on PMz5 pollution at the provincial level is not obvious, but at the level of municipality directly under the central government is significant. Therefore, the key to reduce PM2.5 is to cut down the dependence on coal in energy consumption, and to pay attention to improve the utilization of coal efficiency. For large cities, optimizing the industrial structure, reducing construction dust and improving the standards of the vehicle emissions can also be helpful.