国际原油价格变化对我国经济增长影响分析——基于非线性STR模型实证研究

Analyzing the Impact of WTI Oil Price Fluctuation on Chinese Economic Growth——Based on Empirical Study of Nonlinear STR Model

本文从非线性视角构建STR模型,实证WTI油价变化对我国经济增长影响。结果表明:固定资产投资和货币供给增加刺激我国总需求,抵消了WTI油价上涨从总供给角度对我国经济增长的负向直接影响,从而最终使两者之间存在同向变动关系,所以WTI油价变化对我国经济增长影响结果是由总需求变化决定。经济新常态下,应通过财政和货币政策适度扩大总需求,实现当前WTI低油价有利我国经济增长的预期。

In the angel of nonlinear, the paper constructs STR model to em- pirical study the impact of WTI oil price fluctuation on Chinese economic growth. The result indicates that although there is direct negative impact from WTI oil price rise to Chinese economic growth in the angel of aggregate supply, the aggregate demand which was expanded by the increase of investment in the fixed assets and money supply offsets above impact. Therefore, there is same direction impact from WTI oil price rise to Chinese economic growth and the change of aggregate demand determines the impact between them. Thus, con- sidering today＇s economic new normal, it should moderately expand aggregate demand by fiscal and monetary policy to achieve the expectation that current low WTI oil price favors Chinese economic growth.