非金融企业资产负债率与杠杆率对经济增长的动态关系研究——基于2000-2015年经验数据的实证分析

Research on the Dynamic Relationship among Non Financial Enterprises' Asset Liability Ratio,Leverage Ratio and Economic Growth——Empirical Analysis of Empirical Data Based on 2000-2014

非金融企业资产负债率和杠杆率,是衡量金融体系风险和稳定性的重要指标,对于宏观经济形势同样产生显著影响。本文选取2000-2015年的月度数据,使用SVAR模型、ARCH模型等计量模型进行实证检验,试图说明和解释非金融企业资产负债率、杠杆率和经济增长等三者之间存在的动态关系。研究结果显示:非金融企业的资产负债率和杠杆率在短期内都会拖累经济增速;如果经济增速能够维持一定程度或者有所增加,对于降低非金融企业的资产负债率和杠杆率会有所帮助;而非金融企业的资产负债率和杠杆率在短期内是相互促进的。因此,要加大对非金融企业债务风险的防范。

In this paper, we select the monthly data of 2000-2014, and use the SVAR model, ARCH model and other measurement methods to empirical test, trying to explain the existence of the dynamic relationship among the three, and we do a robust test for the model, in order to ensure the accuracy and reliability of the empirical analysis results. The results of research show that：the asset liability ratio and leverage of non financial enterprises will be a drag on economic growth in the short term;if the eco- nomic growth can be maintained to a certain degree or increase, the asset liability ra- tio and leverage will be helpful to reduce non-financial enterprises＇the asset liabili- ty ratio and leverage ratio;while the asset liability ratio and leverage ratio of non-financial enterprises are mutually promoted in the short term.