会计盈余激进度反转对盈余持续性的影响研究

The Effect of Earnings Aggressiveness Reversal on the Earnings Persistence

以会计盈余激进程度发生反转来识别企业盈余管理行为,以我国A股上市公司为样本,研究了不同会计盈余操控行为下的盈余持续性问题。研究发现,在没有显著的盈余操控行为时,现金盈余和应计盈余的持续能力没有显著差别;在首次发生盈余操控行为后,平滑收益动机下的负向盈余管理导致未来盈余的较小波动,使得会计盈余整体呈现较强的持续能力;而在其他动机导致的盈余管理行为下,未来盈余的波动性难以预测,现金盈余和应计盈余都不具备持续能力。

With the sample of China’s A share firms,this study takes earning aggressiveness reversal to identify a firm’s earning management behavior and further examines the earnings persistence under different earning management behaviors. The results show that there is no difference between the persistence of cash earnings and accrual earnings when there is no prominent earnings management behavior. After the first earnings manipulation,under the motive of smooth earnings the negative earnings management leads to the stable future earnings,which finally leads to the earnings persistence. However,under other motives of earning management,the future fluctuation of earning is hard to predict and neither cash nor accrual earnings has persistence.