中国能源消费与GDP的变结构关系研究

Research on the Variable Structure of Chinese Energy Consumption and GDP

中国经济在由原来的工业主导型经济向服务主导型经济转变,能源消费与经济增长的关系也在发生转变。采用1953-2013年能源消费与经济增长的年度数据,进行协整检验,发现两者存在长期协整关系。并基于标准化累计残差检验CUSUM方法,对两个变量之间进行模型系数稳定性检验,结论表明:能源消费与经济增长之间的关系不稳定,存在结构变化的情况。在此基础上引入以1993年为转折点的虚拟变量,能源消费的弹性系数明显降低,说明我国的能源利用总体效率得以提升。

China＇s economy has undergone a transformation from the original industry-ed economy to serv- ice-oriented economy, thus the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth also chan- ges. Using annual data of energy consumption and economic growth during 1953--2013, the co-integration test is conducted and the long-term co-integration relationship is found. Based on standardized CUSUM test method, the model coefficients stability test between the two variables is carried out. The results show that the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth is unstable; and there are changes in the structure. On this basis, the virtual variables with 1993 as the turning point are introduced and ener- gy consumption elasticity coefficient significantly reduces, which shows that China＇s overall efficiency of energy use can be improved.