山区村镇洪灾承灾能力评估——以神农架林区为例

Assessment on bearing capacity of flood disaster for villages and towns in mountain area——a case study based on Shennongjia forest region

针对我国山区村镇洪灾特点,以神农架林区为对象,提出了基于云模型的洪灾承灾能力评价方法。针对山区村镇条件和山洪特点,构建评估指标体系;建立基于逆向云发生器和综合云算法结合专家打分区间和最可能值确定指标权重、使用条件云发生器获得量化指标的评价水平、耦合得到评价结果的评价方法,并对全区八个乡镇的山洪承灾能力进行了评估,为林区规划提供科学依据。结果表明,林区各村镇山洪承灾能力总体较低,孕灾环境恶劣,专项应灾能力明显落后,其中松柏镇、阳日镇、红坪镇和下谷坪乡属于低水平,木鱼镇与新华镇属于较低水平,宋洛乡属于中等水平,九湖镇为高水平。案例结果表明该方法能够直观地将客观数据和主观认识反映为综合结果,有利于获得可靠的结论。

Aiming at the characteristics of flood disaster in mountain area of China,taking Shennongjia forest region as an example,an assessment method on bearing capacity of flood disaster based on cloud model was put forward. Considering the conditions of villages and towns in mountain area and the characteristics of mountain torrents,an assessment index system was constructed. The weights of indexes were determined by combining with experts scoring interval and the most probable value based on backward cloud generator and integrated cloud algorithm,then the assessment levels of quantitative indexes were obtained by using conditional cloud generator,and the assessment results were obtained by coupling. The bearing capacities of mountain torrents for eight towns in Shennongjia forest region were assessed to provide scientific basis for forest region planning. The results showed that the bearing capacities of mountain torrents for each town in Shennongjia forest region was relatively lower as a whole,the disaster inducing environment was harsh,and the special disaster response capacity lagged behind apparently. Among which,the Songbai town,Yangri town,Hongping town and Xiaguping town belonged to the low level,the Muyu town and Xinhua town belonged to the relatively low level,the Songluo town belonged to the middle level,and the Jiuhu town belonged to the high level. The case study showed that the method can reflect the objective data and subjective knowledge into comprehensive results intuitively,which is beneficial to obtain the reliable results.