基于健康度分析的电网单元设备集可靠性评估研究

Research on reliability assessment of unit equipment set in power grid based on health degree analysis

电网作为一类关键基础设施,能否安全稳定运行直接关系到社会的安全稳定以及经济发展。对电网进行可靠性评估,找到薄弱环节并给予增强稳固来提高电网整体抗扰性,降低电网风险,具有重要现实意义。在构建电网网络结构中节点单元的可靠性评估模型时,以设备可靠性模型为基础,将电网设备的健康度分析、老化度分析引入可靠性评估模型,一定程度上减少了可靠性评估模型中人为主观因素的影响;同时,将动态健康度预测和静态健康度总结进行综合,减少了各自评估的缺点,为可靠性评估提供了更为准确的变量信息,能够更为准确的区分不同设备的安全性程度。通过评估模型的构建和Q市电网算例的应用,表明该模型可以有效、快捷的衡量电网设备信息,为电网一线工作人员提供了较为方便的评估手段。

Power grid is a kind of critical infrastructure,and the safe and stable operation of power grid is directly related to the social safety and stability and economic development. So it has important practical significance to carry out reliability assessment on power grid,find out its weak link,and offer enhancement and steadiness so as to improve the integral immunity and reduce the risk of power grid. When establishing a reliability assessment model of node units in the network structure of power grid,based on the reliability model of equipments,the health degree analysis and aging degree analysis of power grid equipments were introduced into the reliability assessment model,which reduced the influence of artificial subjective factors in the reliability assessment model to a certain extent. At the same time,the dynamic health degree forecast and static health degree summary were synthesized,which can reduce the disadvantages of each assessment and provide more accurate variable information for reliability assess- ment. Through the establishment of assessment model and the application of example in power grid of Q city,it showed that this model can assess the equipments information of power grid effectively and rapidly,which provides a convenient assessment method for the front- line staff of power grid.