江苏省产业虚拟水出口贸易变动及其驱动因子研究

Research on export trade change of virtual water and its driving factors in Jiangsu Province

虚拟水贸易作为解决缺水地区的水资源问题的战略受到越来越多的关注,量化区域虚拟水贸易格局,并分析该格局下区域虚拟水贸易量变动的驱动因素是研究虚拟水和水资源管理的新思路。本文以江苏省为例,首先运用投入产出模型计算出1997-2010年江苏省虚拟水出口贸易量,分析江苏省当前虚拟水贸易格局,再运用LMDI指数分解法,分解出影响虚拟水贸易量的驱动因素及其贡献率。研究结果表明:江苏省工业总体虚拟水出口贸易量最大、占虚拟水出口总量比例最高,是虚拟水出口总量变动的重要因素;规模要素对江苏省虚拟水出口贸易量增加的贡献率逐渐下降,技术要素对江苏省虚拟水贸易量增加的抑制贡献率逐渐上升。了解江苏省虚拟水贸易格局、实施虚拟水战略是实现水资源优化配置的重要途径之一,能为江苏缓解用水矛盾、解决水资源短缺危机提供一个新视角。

The virtual water trade as a strategy to solve the problem of water resources in dryland has been paid more and more attention. The quantization of virtual water trade patterns and the analysis of driving factors of virtual water chang is a breakthrough new idea of water management. Taking Jiangsu Provice for example, this paper first used input - output model to calculate the outflow of virtual water in 21 industries of Jiangsu Province from 1997 to 2010 and analyzed the current virtual water trade pattern of Jiangsu Province, and then used the method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index to analyze the driving factors and contribution rate of virtual water change. The results show that industrial virtual water trade of Jiangsu Province is the biggest part of the whole virtual water trade and accounts for the highest proportion of total virtual water exports, and is the important factor the whole virtual water trade change ; the contribution rate of scale factor to the increase of virtual water trade has decreased gradually. The contribution rate of technology to the reduce of virtual water trade has strengthened gradually. Acknowledging the pattern of virtual water trade and implementing virtual water strategy is one of important ways to achieve optimal allocation of water resources in the region and can offer a new perspective for Jiangsu Province to ease water conflicts and solve water shortage crisis.