秦岭北麓典型流域年径流序列的突变分析

Mutation analysis of annual runoff series in typical basin of northern region of Qinling mountains

运用Mann-Kendall检验法和有序聚类分析法,基于秦岭北麓典型流域1955-2010年的年径流变化特征,旨在揭示该地区年径流序列的突变特性。结果表明:56a来灞河、大峪河、沣河、涝河、黑河年径流量呈下降的趋势,且在1955-1983年的年径流模数变化具有同步性,而1983年之后的同步性较差;除大峪河无突变点外,其余四条流域年际径流序列的突变点在80年代后期。文中五条典型流域的年径流序列突变分析可为水资源配置提供参考。

Based on the annual runoff variation characteristics in typical basins of northern regions of the Qinling Mountains from 1955 to 2010 ,the paper used Mann -Kendall test and ordered cluster analysis to reveal the mutation characteristics of the regiong annual runoff series. The results showed that the annual runoff of Babe river, Dayuhe river, Fenghe river, Laohe river and Heihe river had downward trend for 56 years, and the change of annual runoff modulus had synchronism from 1955 to 1983, the synchronism is poor after 1983. Except that Dayuhe River has no mutation point, the mutation point of annual runoff series in other four basins took please in the late 1980s. The result can provide reference for the development and utilization of water resources.