基于风险价值的危险品运输路径优化建模

Value-at-Risk Model for Hazardous Material Transportation

总结了危险品运输风险评估时常用的9个经典风险评价模型并分析了模型的特性,在此基础上引入带有决策者主观偏好的风险价值概念;构建了基于风险价值的危险品运输风险评价模型并设计对应的算法;数值分析说明了危险品运输风险价值的有效性和适用性。

This dissertation summarizes nine commonly used classical risk assessment models and analyzes the characteristics of these models, then brings the introduction of the concept of Value- at-Risk with subjective preference of policy-makers. This paper provides VaR risk model for hazmat transportation and designs corresponding algorithm. Numerical analysis is proposed in the paper to illustrate the validity and applicability of VaR model.