菲律宾南海激进政策的缘起、发展与未来趋势

The Origin,Development and Future Trend of Philippines' Radical South China Sea Policy

阿基诺三世执政以来,菲律宾国内亲美的能源利益集团和军方利益集团主导了其南海政策针对中国的激进化过程。菲律宾南海激进政策的发展适应了美国"再平衡亚洲"的战略需求。菲律宾强化美菲军事合作关系的举措和执意将中菲南海争端提交仲裁的政策将菲美关系和菲中关系推向不易轻易调整的轨道。其国际政治的选择限制了国内政治调整菲律宾南海政策的空间。面向未来,菲律宾激进的南海政策已经难以为继。然而,由于阿基诺三世执政期间已经从军事安全、外交等方面将菲律宾与美国现阶段针对中国的亚太战略牢牢地绑在一起,新一届政府即便想改变既有针对中国的激进的南海政策,都将面临内政和外交的极大阻力。

After Benigno Aquino IIl took the oath of office, pro - America Energy Interest Group and Military Interest Group in the Philippines is leading a radical South China Sea policy targeted at China. Such radical poli- cy complies with America＇s strategy of ＂Rebalancing to Asia＂. Philippines intensifies military cooperation with U.S. and persists in UN arbitration against China for South China Sea dispute. Therefore, it pushes U. S. - Philippine relation and Sino -Philippine relation to an inflexible direction. At the same time, Philippines＇ inter- national politics limits the domestic politics on how to adjust to its South China Sea policy. In the future, the radical South China Sea policy of the Philippines is difficuh to continue. However, the Aquino administration was tied firmly with the Asian - Pacific strategy of the U. S. on China in the aspects of military security, diplomacy and so on. Therefore, though the new government attempts to change the current South China Sea policy aimed at China, it will confront with great resistance of internal affairs and diplomacy.