埋藏裂纹缺陷的模糊概率安全评定方法研究

Fuzzy Probabilistic Safety Assessment Method on Embedded Crack Defects

根据球形压力容器埋藏裂纹缺陷安全评定中随机变量的分布类型及蒙特卡罗模拟法,建立了针对"失效"的模糊隶属度函数,实现了模糊失效概率的计算。在概率失效评定图方法的基础上,充分考虑安全评定结果判定中的模糊性,建立了针对15Mn Mo VN钢球形压力容器中埋藏裂纹缺陷的模糊概率安全评定方法。通过对典型埋藏裂纹缺陷进行安全评定,结果表明,模糊概率安全评定方法有较高的可靠性,能够解决安全评定中的随机性和模糊性问题。

The distribution types of the random variables in safety assessment of embedded crack defects and Monte Carlo simulation method are analyzed. The fuzzy membership function for the Failure is established. The calculation of fuzzy failure probability is achieved. In view of the fuzziness in the evaluation, the fuzzy probabilistic safety assessment method of embedded crack defects in the 15MnMoVN sphere pressure vessel is developed based on the probabilistic failure assessment diagram. By the safe assessment of the actual detected embedded crack defects, the results show that the fuzzy probabilistic safety assessment method has good reliability and is able to solve the problem of randomness and fuzziness.