厦门市恙虫病流行特征及发病趋势预测效果研究

Epidemic characteristics and prediction effect of scrub typhus in Xiamen City

目的研究厦门市恙虫病的流行特征并探讨ARIMA模型拟合厦门市恙虫病发病趋势预测及效果评价。方法搜集并整理厦门市2008-2014年恙虫病病例数据,对该数据分别进行性别、职业和年龄分组频数统计分析,并计算其发病率,描述厦门市恙虫病发病时间分布和人群分布;利用SPSS软件通过差分等方法对恙虫病月发病数序列进行平稳化,然后进行模型参数的估计、检验,最优模型的筛选,最后进行预测分析。结果2008-2014年厦门市恙虫病年平均发病率为2.42/10万,发病的季节分布主要集中在6-9月,发病主要集中在40～69岁年龄组,ARIMA（2,1,0）（0,1,0）12较好地拟合了厦门市恙虫病的月发病数据,预测效果良好。结论近年来厦门市恙虫病发病率呈逐年上升趋势且伴随着年龄的增高而增高,运用ARIMA模型进行短期预测,为评价防控措施效果提供科学依据。

Objective To analyze the epidemic characteristics and evaluate effect of ARIMA model for predicting the incidence of the scrub typhus in Xiamen City. Methods Data of scrub typhus cases from 2008 to 2014 were collected and linked to analysis of gender,occupation and age groups frequency statistics,calculation the data of incidence. SPSS software was used to acquire the epidemic characteristics of scrub typhus. The stabilization of the incidence cases by month had been completed by employing difference. After that,the estimation and test of model parameter and the selection of optimized model had been implemented. Results The overall incidence rate of scrub typhus in Xiamen City from 2008 to 2014 was 2. 42 per 100 thousand of population. The cases were accounted intensively from June to September,and the highest incidence of scrub typhus occurred in age group of 40- 69 years.ARIMA（ 2,1,0）（ 0,1,0） 12 was capable of fitting the monthly incidence data of scrub typhus. Conclusion In recent years the incidences of scrub typhus in Xiamen City were rising with year and increasing with age. ARIMA should be an appropriate method to perform the short-term forecasting,which provided a scientific basis for the prevention and control measures effect evaluation.