拉萨市重大节日期间交通需求预测方法研究

Studies on Traffic Demand Forecasting Method during Major Holidays in Lhasa

文章在总结国内外重大节日期间交通需求预测研究现状的基础上,分析拉萨重大节日期间的交通特点,并基于传统四阶段法建立新的预测模型,同时以拉萨雪顿节为例对该模型进行验证。结果表明:新的方法能够合理预测拉萨节日期间的客流,为拉萨市节假日期间的交通管理提供理论支持。

Based on summarizing the present domestic and foreign traffic demand forecast research situation during major holidays,this article analyzed the traffic characteristics of Lhasa during major holidays,established new forecasting model based on the traditional four-stage method,and verified this model with Lhasa Shoton Festival as the example.The results showed that the new method can reason-ably predict the passenger traffic in Lhasa during the holiday season,thereby providing the theoretical support for traffic management in Lhasa during the holidays.