基于证据理论和熵权灰色关联的潜在地震滑坡危险性评价

Assessment of potential seismic landslide hazard based on evidence theory and entropy weight grey incidence

为了更好地预测地震滑坡的危险性,根据信息融合,提出一种基于证据理论和熵权灰色关联法的地震滑坡危险性预测模型,即以证据理论为模型基础,以滑坡危险等级为识别框架,根据地震滑坡发生所需要的条件,选取岩石风化系数、地震烈度、断裂带密度、河网密度、相对高度、山体坡度这6项指标作为证据体,并采用熵权灰色关联法确定各证据体的确定信度。通过分析并且采用国内若干组滑坡实例对模型进行验证。研究结果表明:该方法具有较高的预测精度,可靠合理,能满足抗震防灾规划要求。

To deal with the prediction of seismic landslide hazard, based on information fusion, a methodology was proposed for predicting seismic landslide using the evidence theory which can reflect the comprehensive influences of different factors. Six indices related to the occurrence condition of seismic landslide were taken into account as evidence in the proposed method, including the coefficient of rock weathering, earthquake intensity, fault density, drainage density, relative height and the mountain slope. The basic probability was objectively constructed using entropy weight grey incidence. The seismic landslide prediction model was built by evidence theory and entropy weight grey incidence. The results show that the method has relatively high accuracy. Because of its reliability and rationality, this method can satisfy the planning on earthquake resistance and hazardous prevention generally.