基于VAR模型研究我国人口老龄化对经济增长的影响

The Impact of Population Aging on Economic Growth by VAR Model

随着我国人口老龄化加剧,这一趋势对我国的发展带来了严峻挑战。因此,本文专注研究了这一问题。文章主要选择了实际GDP增长率、人均实际GDP、老年人口抚养比、国民储蓄率、劳动参与率变量以及1995年至2014年的数据;其次,我们建立了VAR模型;然后,我们确定了模型的滞后阶数,并且对模型进行了平稳性检验、脉冲响应分析;最后,在假定不考虑其他因素的条件下,我们得到的结论是人口老龄化对我国经济增长产生的负面效应大于积极效应。

With the development of Chinese aging population, which has brought serious challenges on Chinese development. Therefore, the article is mainly selected real GDP growth, real per capital GDP, the elderly dependency ratio, the national savings rate, the participation rate of labor force as well as the data of ranging from1995 to 2014, secondly, we have established a VAR model, then, we identified the lag order,the model of the stationary test, impulse response analysis; Finally, under the assumption that the conditions for no other factors,we have concluded that the negative effects of population aging on China＇s economic growth is greater than the positive effect.