安徽省第三产业发展对居民消费增长的动态影响分析

Dynamic Effect of Tertiary Industry Development on the Consumption Growth of Residents in Anhui

采用安徽省1995—2014年期间第三产业产出水平与居民人均消费支出等相关数据,通过建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解研究了安徽省第三产业发展对居民消费增长的动态影响。结论表明:从长期来看,安徽省第三产业发展对居民消费增长的贡献率将达到76.52%,可见安徽省第三产业的不断发展对居民消费增长有明显的促进作用。

We analyzed the output of tertiary industry and the average consumption expenditure of residents and other related data of Anhui province from 1995 to 2014, and establish a vector auto regression （VAR） model. With the impulse response functions and variance decomposition we analyzed the impact of tertiary industry on residents＇ consumption growth in Anhui Province. The conclusion shows that the contribution rate of the tertiary industry in Anhui province reached 76.52% in the long run, which has a positive effect on the growth of residents＇ consumption.