基于统计方法的高速远程滑坡距离预测分析

Forecast analysis of movement distances of high-speed and long-distance landslides based on statistical methods

目前高速远程滑坡最大水平距离的计算方法还不够完善,基于国内外的高速远程滑坡文献资料,结合相关性分析和敏感度分析原理,对高速远程滑坡的最大水平运动距离L、最大垂直高度H与滑坡体积V的关系进行数据分析,并通过多元非线性回归分析,给出了高速远程滑坡最大水平距离的经验公式。研究结果表明:1高速远程滑坡最大水平运动距离与和滑坡体积、最大垂直高度均为正相关,且最大垂直高度的相关性系数更大;2高速远程滑坡最大水平距离对最大垂直高度的变化更为敏感,这与相关性分析保持一致;3考虑最大垂直高度与滑坡体积两因素,提出了高速远程滑坡最大水平距离预测公式。研究成果可用于高速远程滑坡的运动特性分析中,为致灾区域和致灾强度的预测和评价提供参考依据。

Nowadays,the exiting methods of calculating the maximum horizontal distance of high- speed and long- distance landslides are not perfect. To further study the motion characteristics of high- speed and long- distance landslide,the geometry parameters about landslide were collected from the domestic and international literatures. Combining with the relativity and sensitivity theory,the relationship among the maximum horizontal moving distance,the maximum vertical height and the volume of the landslide is analyzed,and an empirical formula of maximum horizontal moving distance is obtained. The result shows that the maximum vertical height and volume of the landslide are positively correlated to the maximum horizontal moving distance,and the correlation coefficient of the maximum vertical height is the largest. The maximum horizontal moving distance is more sensitive to the variation of maximum vertical height,which is consistent with the correlation analysis results. The empirical formula of the maximum horizontal moving distance is put forward by considering the maximum vertical height and volume of landslide. The research results can be used for the analysis of the motion characteristics of high- speed and long- distance landslide to provide reference basis for the forecast and evaluation of disaster area and its intensity.