农民工子女随迁的选择性及其影响因素分析

Behavioral Selectivity and Influencing Factors of Children's Migration with Rural Migrant Workers

本文根据中国社会科学院人口与劳动经济研究所分别于2001年和2010年在上海、武汉、沈阳、福州和西安这五个城市所展开的劳动力调查数据,运用dprobit回归分析对农民工子女随迁与否的影响因素进行考察。研究结果表明,从农民工子女的个人特征方面来看,随着子女年龄的增长,其跟随父母迁移到城市的可能性会呈现出下降的趋势。同时,学龄子女随迁而非留守的可能性会明显低于学龄前子女,且以初中适龄阶段的子女尤甚。从估计结果中也可以看出,若是老家有祖父(母),则农民工子女随迁的可能性就会下降。此外,农民工群体在流入地的生活年限对于其子女随迁与否也具有显著影响。随着户主在流入地居住时间的增长,其子女随迁的可能性会呈现出上升的趋势。

According to China Urban Labor Market Survey data conducted by the Institute of Population and Labor Economics at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences respectively in 2001 and 2010 at Shanghai, Wuhan, Shenyang, Fuzhou and Xi＇an, this paper analyzes the factors affecting children＇s migration following with their parents to cities, using dprobit regression analysis. The results show that, in terms of personal characteristics of children, with their age increasing, the possibility of their migration decreases. At the same time, the migration possibility of school-age children, especially children from 12 to 15 years old, is obviously lower than pre-school age children. It shows that if there is a grandfather （or grandmother） at hometown, the possibility of children＇s migration reduces. In addition, years of rural migrant workers living in the cities also significantly affects the possibility of children＇s migration. The longer migrant workers live in cities, the higher the possibility of children＇s migration is.