中国能源消费结构影响因素冗余分析研究

The effect factors of China's energy consumption structure based on redundancy analysis

实施能源革命决策,必须调整能源消费结构。运用冗余分析法和排序图技术对中国1993年到2013年的能源消费结构与其影响因素进行了四个方面分析。研究结果:(1)选取的9个影响因素,GDP增长率、人口增长率以及能源强度随时间序列呈下降趋势,其他为上升趋势;(2)各类能源消费对影响因子的敏感性不同:煤炭消费占比对服务业能源消费比例、能源强度、人口增长率和GDP增长率较敏感;天然气消费占比对能源禀赋和对外开放度成正的敏感性;新能源消费对城镇化水平、技术进步、基础设施投资成正敏感性;石油消费对影响因子不太敏感。(3)影响能源消费结构变化较大的因素依次为服务业能源消费水平、能源强度、人口增长率、基础建设投资、城镇化水平;(4)提出了促进中国能源结构优化调整的对策建议。

Energy consumption structure must be adjusted to implement energy revolution decision-making. China＇s energy consumption structure and effect factors were analyzed from the year 1993 to 2013 by using the redundancy analysis and sorting technology. The research results are as follows. （1） GDP growth rate, population growth rate and energy intensity declined with time sequence in the nine factors, but others were on the contrary. （2） Different energy consumption had different sensitivity to effect factors. Coal consumption was sensitive to service industry of energy consumption, energy intensity, population growth rate and GDP growth rate. Natural gas consumption was positive sensitivity to energy endowment and foreign openness into. New energy consumption was sensitive to urbanization level, technological progress, infrastructure investment, but oil consumption was not sensitive to any factors. （3）The important factors on effect energy consumption structure in turn were service industry energy consumption, energy intensity, population growth rate, infrastructure investment, urbanization. Some suggestions to adjust China＇s energy consumption structure were proposed.