ARMA模型在浅埋刚性管线变形预测的应用研究

Research on ARMA model and its application to prediction of shallow buried rigid pipeline deformation

为了研究隧道开挖对浅埋刚性管线的影响,基于平稳时间序列分析理论,通过对ARMA模型的识别与定阶以及参数的估计,建立管线变形监测数据处理与预测的时间序列ARMA模型。利用该模型对大连地铁1号线千山路站浅埋刚性管线的变形进行预测,并将预测数据与实测数据进行比较,结果表明:两者拟合程度很高,ARMA模型取得较好的拟合效果和预测精度。说明ARMA模型对管线变形监测数据处理与预测是十分有效和可靠的,可为隧道开挖过程中,施工人员做出决策提供技术参考。

In oder to study the effect of tunnel excavation on buried pipeline,the time series ARMA model for processing and forecasting the deformation data of pipeline.The stationary time series analysis theory,the estimation of parameters and the identification of the order of ARMA model is used in the process above.Using the method of time series to model and analysing the deformation monitoring data of shallow buried rigid pipeline in Qianshan Road Station of Dalian metro line one,the prediction are in good agreement with actual measurements;It is proved that the method is basically feasible.