天水蜜桃花果期霜冻气候风险区划研究

On Climatic Risk Zoning of Peach in Flowering and Fruiting Period in Tianshui City

花果期霜冻是天水蜜桃主要农业气象灾害,关山温凉-高寒山区霜冻发生频率高达60%以上,灾害年份果树平均减产率35%以上,产量及经济损失极大.用自然灾害风险分析原理,以县(区)为单元,对天水各县(区)蜜桃花果期不同等级霜冻发生频率及由此造成的损失进行统计分析,利用风险度评估模型计算了各县(区)蜜桃花果期霜冻灾害风险度,并以风险度和灾害年份的平均减产率为主要区划指标,花果期最低平均气温、极端最低气温为辅助指标,进行天水蜜桃花果期霜冻灾害风险区划,这对当地蜜桃产业布局发展和气象灾害防御具有重要参考价值和指导意义.

Spring late frost is the main agricultural m eteorological disaster of peach flow ering ＆ fruiting periodin T ianshui City. Frequency of spring frost is as high as 60% in G uanshan D istrict of T ianshui City,w here peach yield reduction rate is m ore than 35% in disaster years. Based on natural disaster risk analysisprinciple, peach loss of each country （d istrict） caused by different grades frost frequency in T ianshui Cityhas been analyzed by m eans of the risk evaluation m odel, frost disaster risks of peach in flow ering＆ fruiting period are calculated in countries （d istricts） of T ianshui City. W ith frost disaster risk and averageyield reduction rate in disaster years as main zoning index, w ith average m inim um tem perature and extreme m inim um tem perature in peach flow ering ＆ fruiting period as secondary index, frost disaster riskzoning of peach in flow ering and fruiting period have been m ade in T ianshui City. It is significance for reasonablelayout of peach and prevention of m eteorological disasters to effectively im prove the peach industrialeffect in T ianshui City.