云模型在中长期降水预测中的应用

Application of Cloud Model to Medium and Long-Term Rainfall Forecasting

中长期降水预测对灌区水资源管理、种植结构调整及水生生态系统的健康发展具有重要意义。将定性概念与定量概念之间的不确定性转换模型引入到中长期降水预测中,以更好地反映降水时程分配中的随机不确定性和模糊不确定性。基于云模型的降水预测法通过挖掘已有观测数据的内在联系,形成预测规则,并据此进行中长期预测。最后,运用云模型对河南省渠村引黄灌区2004—2013年的降水量进行了预测。结果表明:云模型预测的年降水量平均值与实测值整体拟合较好,预测精度优于灰色预测等方法。

Medium and long-term rainfall forecasting has great significance for water resources management,adjustment of planting structureand the development of health of aquatic ecosystems of irrigation area. In order to better reflect the random uncertainty and fuzzy uncertaintyin the process ofrainfall time-coursedistribution,this paper introduced cloud model to medium and long-term rainfall forecasting.The modelenabled uncertainty conversion between qualitative concept and quantitative concept. Rainfall forecasting method based on cloud model formedthe prediction rule by digging up the internal relations of observation data,and then did medium and long-term forecasting according to therule. It used cloud model to forecast the annual rainfall of Qucun irrigation area in Henan Province from 2004 to 2013,and the results showedthat the estimated mean of annual rainfall overall fited well with the measured value. The test results of forecasting model shows that,cloudmodel method is better than the grey forecasting method in the application of medium and long-term rainfall forecasting.