基于信息扩散理论的贵州省农业旱灾风险评估

Agricultural Drought Risk Assessment of Guizhou Province Based on Information Diffusion Theory

农业旱灾风险评估对农业旱灾防护有重要作用。以贵州省1951—2010年统计资料为基础,基于信息扩散理论,对贵州省农业旱灾进行风险评估。结果表明：随着贵州省各地市旱灾成灾损失标准的提高,成灾风险概率值总体上呈下降趋势,成灾面积指数为5%~10%时,研究区发生旱灾的频率基本为1.0~2.0 a一遇;成灾面积指数为15%~20%时,风险概率下降较为明显,表现出明显的空间差异,旱灾发生频率总体为西高东低,东北、东南偏高;成灾面积指数为10%以下时全省多为高风险区,旱灾发生的频率很高。

Agricultural drought risk assessment plays an important role to the agricultural drought protection. Based on the statistical data of1951-2010 in Guizhou Province and the theory of information diffusion model,risk assessment of agricultural drought in Guizhou Provincewas done. Results show that disaster risk probability generally decrease with the increasing of drought disaster loss rate from 5% to 20% inGuizhou Province. Between the drought loss rate of 5% and 10%,the occurrence frequency of drought remains distributed at 1.0 to 2.0 years.Between the drought loss rate of 15% and 20%,the risk probability value decreases quickly,suggesting big spatial difference with highoccurrence frequency in western,northeast and southeast regions. Under the conditions of disaster losses rate less than 10%,the most of thearea is in high-risk with high occurrence frequency,indicating high degree of agricultural drought risk and serious outcome. These resultsbroad our understanding of drought occurrence in Guizhou Province and provide guidance for disaster prevention and loss reduction.