实都策略、人口增长与政治中心东移--唐显庆至开元年间长安、洛阳政治地位变迁的量化分析

Centralized System,Population Growth and the Eastward Shift of the Political Center

中央集权的政治体制及其主导下的实都政策是京畿物资供需失衡的根源,也是历代都城盛衰的关键。唐显庆至开元间长安、洛阳政治地位的变化即是受此影响导致政治中心变迁的实例。由于唐初京畿地区推行实都与限迁政策,长安人口在永徽末年已近历史最高值,人众地狭导致授田亩数、户均粮食量、余粮数额等持续下降。根据灾损比例与农户维持温饱的最低亩数的量化分析,可见永徽之际的京畿农户不仅储粮有限,且承灾能力极低。政府根本无法在这一地区收购余粮,仅凭关中租税与外粮已无法满足长安人口的增长。所以在实都与限迁政策下,京畿人口膨胀与粮食供给之间的矛盾成为显庆至开元年间唐政治中心东移的主要因素。

The centralized political system and its population growth is the root under the auspices of Gyeonggi goods supply and demand imbalance is the key to China＇s ancient capital and Fall. Kaiyuan Tang Xianqing to change between Chang＇an and Luoyang political status is inadequate food supply caused by population growth, and thus affect the political center of the case changes. The current discussion of its more limited by historical qualitative analysis, solid all policy and regional population growth places the text under the centralized system for the visual threshold, quantitative analysis of the Emperor during the Chang＇an population size, Gyeonggi surplus and subsistence farmers the lowest yield, off the tax and foreign grain can supply the highest account value as a basis to explore population concentration, changes in the environment to survive and political center.