新农保实施前后农民养老期望变化研究--基于2009年和2014年农户调查数据的对比分析

Study of the Changes of Farmers' Old-age Expectations before and after the Implementation of the New Farmers' Security System

在新农保制度实施之后,我国农民最主要的养老期望由依靠子女赡养转变为既依靠自己又依靠子女及养老保险的多重保障方式,虽然依靠养老保险的比例有所上升,但变化幅度不明显。这种变化可以解读为:新农保制度的实施进一步完善了农村社会养老保障体系,导致了养老期望在多重保障方面的大幅上升;而依靠养老保险的期望仅是微升,证明了新农保制度的保障力度还有待加强且存在一些制度性的症结。因此,为了更好地防范农民的老年生活风险,必须建立多层次的农村养老保障体系,加强农村养老保障政策的宣传和引导,合理调节新农保补贴比例,实现对农民收入的"正向调节"。

Under a severe challenge of population aging in rural areas, this paper uses farmers＂ endowment expectation as research object, economic source in old age as measurement index, and the comparative analysis of research data from surveys （2009 -2014） named as＂ National Rural Social Security Problems＂ , to explore how to orientate the changes of farmers＇endowment expectation, why the changes took place, and whether the implementation of New Farmers＂ Security System has improved the role of a strong welfare for farmers.