“全面二孩”政策实施效果的评价与优化策略——基于城市“双非”夫妇再生育意愿的调查

Study on the Evaluation and Improvement Path of China's Universal Second- Child Policy:Based on the Survey of Reproduction Willingness of Urban Couples both of Whom are not the Only Child

基于2016年广东省1017户城市"双非"夫妇再生育意愿的调查数据,采用实证分析方法,评估"全面二孩"政策的实施效果。研究结果显示,"全面二孩"政策对城市"双非"夫妇再生育意愿的影响作用有限。政策实施加剧了再生育意愿在不同类型的"双非"夫妇之间的分化,可能带来生育率失衡的风险。为此,应当从加强政策宣传、保障职业女性的生育权益和降低再生育成本方面优化"全面二孩"政策的实施,并制定适合不同地区的差别化政策和风险防范机制。

The date used in this research comes from the survey of reproduction willingness of 1,017 urban couples, both of whom are not the only child in their families. The survey was carried on Guangdong province in 2016. In this paper, we use an empirical analysis to evaluate China＇s universal second - child policy effect. The research conclusion reveals, the universal second -child policy has a limited impact on those urban couples＇ reproduction desire. At the same time, the implementation of the policy has intensified the differentiation of reproduction willingness in different types of such urban couples, and may cause the risk of fertility imbalance. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the policy advocacy, protect the rights of professional women＇s fertility and reduce the cost of reproduction, in order to improve the policy and to develop appropriate policies and risk prevention mechanism for different regions.