中国产业结构升级与人力资本提升

China's Industrial Upgrade and Human Capital Improvement

本文利用统计数据,阐述了改革开放以来中国经济增长与产业结构升级状况,并测算了产业结构变动对经济增长的贡献。以平均受教育年限作为人力资本的代理变量,描述了产业结构变化过程中中国劳动力素质发展变化情况。在此基础上,依据经济和人口预测,估算了中国未来的人力资本需求及其缺口。最后,从技能培养和教育发展两大方面,提出了中国提升人力资本的对策建议。

Based on statistics, this paper reviews China＇s economic growth and industrial upgrade since the reform and opening up in 1978 and estimates the contribution of industrial restructuring to economic growth. With the years of schooling as the proxy variable of human capital, this paper describes changes in China＇s labor competence during the industrial restructuring process. Then, this paper estimates China＇s future human capital demand and shortage based on economic and demographic forecast. Lastly, this paper proposes recommendations for improving human capital in China with skills development and education.