少子老龄化、养老金均衡与提高退休年龄——基于OECD国家的经验比较

The Aging Population with Lower Fertility,Equilibrium of Pension and Increasing the Retirement Age Based on the Empirical Analysis of OECD Countries

在人口生育率下降与预期寿命延长的双重作用下,OECD国家普遍出现了少子老龄化危机。根据建模与实证分析,少子老龄化导致老年抚养比上升是造成养老金收支失衡的主要原因,而提高退休年龄将降低老年抚养比并有助于改善养老金收支平衡。基于此,大多数OECD国家都进行了提高退休年龄改革,其主要经验为:根据人口预期寿命和健康预期寿命的变化进行退休年龄调整;在一定周期内小步渐进和逐步提高退休年龄并设置了改革的窗口期;为避免改革的经济效率损失,建立了弹性退休政策、老年人就业促进和保护政策等辅助机制。OECD国家的经验对我国提高退休年龄的条件以及政策设计有较高的借鉴意义。

The crisis of aging population w ith low er fertility has occurred in many OECD countries w ith the decline of TFR and the increase of life expectancy. According to the model and empirical analysis,the rise of the elderly dependency ratio is major reason to cause the serious imbalance of pension payments gradually in these countries,w hile the increase in retirement age w ill be helpful for reducing the elderly dependency ratio and improving the equilibrium of pension in the long-term. Accordingly,many OECD countries have carried out the reform of increasing the retirement age.The basic conditions and policy of increasing the retirement age in these countries is comparatively analyzed in this article. The main experiences include the follow ing aspects: 1) to adjust the retirement age based on the change of life expectancy and healthy life expectancy in future; 2) to increase the retirement age incrementally and gradually in a certain period and set up the w indow period of the reform; 3) to establish the assistant mechanism of increasing the retirement age for avoiding the losses of economic efficiency,such as the policy of flexible retirement,the promotion and protection policy for avoiding the losses of economic efficiency.