金砖国家金融脆弱性的跨国比较研究——基于因子分析方法

A Multinational Comparative Study on the BRICS Financial Fragility——A Factor Analysis

笔者选取金砖5国的15个金融脆弱性指标,使用SPSS19.0软件,通过因子分析法构建了金砖国家金融脆弱性指数,并展开跨国比较研究。通过分析发现,金砖5国的金融脆弱性指数呈现出不同的态势,但总体上处于收敛和平稳的趋势。巴西、俄罗斯、印度和南非的金融脆弱性发展趋势呈现出跌宕起伏的形态,而中国的金融系统则处于较为稳定的水平。在巴西、印度和南非的金融脆弱性指数中微观市场指标起到了主要的影响作用,中国和俄罗斯的金融市场指标、宏观经济与政府指标是其金融脆弱性体系中最重要的影响因素。金砖5国在金融合作与发展的进程中要积极应对可能存在的阻碍和风险,各取所长,相互学习,继续推进合作进程的深入。

This paper contracts an index of the BRICS＇financial fragility by the factor analysis method,based on fifteen indicators of financial fragility. Then,we use this index to carry out the multinational study on the BRICS. The empirical results show that the indexes of the BRICS are in various state,but in general tend to convergence. The trend of Brazil,Russia,India and South Africa＇financial fragility are fluctuant,while China presents a relative stable situation. The micro-markets index of Brazil,India and South Africa play a key role,but in China and Russia the financial market and macro-economy index is more important. To cope with the obstacles and risks in the process of BRICS＇cooperation,the five countries is supposed to take advantage of each other and promote the further cooperation.