基于Logistic模型的产业融合动态分析——以四川省第一、三产业为例

A Dynamic Analysis of Industrial Convergence Based on the Logistic Model——A Case Study of Primary Industry and Tertiary Industry of Sichuan Province

产业融合是目前我国经济结构调整的必然趋势。笔者基于Logistic模型建立产业融合动态均衡模型,采用2000年~2015年四川省相关数据运用动态均衡模型,分析了第一、三产业之间的动态关系以及影响产业融合的各种因素。结果表明：四川省第一、第三产业之间存在较强的正向交互关系,彼此之间能够相互促进发展,但是第三产业对第一产业的正向冲击作用更为显著,加快批发、零售业以及金融业的发展是推进产业融合的重要因素。

Industrial convergence is an inevitable trend of economic restructuring. This paper sets up the dynamic equilibriummodel of industrial convergence which based on the Logistic modelto explore the dynamic relationship between primary industry and tertiary industry,as well as various factors that affect the industrial convergenceby analyzing related data from 2000 to 2015 of Sichuan Province.The research shows that there is a strong positive interaction between the primary industry and tertiary industry of Sichuan Province,which can promote mutual development. However,the positive impact of the tertiary industry on primary industry is more significant,especially in the wholesale,retail and the financial sector.