基于货币需求函数的人民币替代港澳台三地货币实证研究

The Empirical Research of Currency Substitution in Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan Based on the Real Money Demand Function

笔者基于货币需求函数理论,使用2001年~2013年的季度数据构建了中国香港、澳门和台湾三地的实际货币需求协整方程,以人民币作为＂锚货币＂,检验了三地的货币替代现象。研究发现：中国香港与澳门地区的货币需求函数不稳定,存在人民币替代港元和澳门元的现象,而台湾地区的货币需求函数稳定,货币替代现象不明显。应积极推进构建两岸四地＂大中华人民币货币区＂,推进两岸四地汇率协调机制,构建风险预警和危机救助机制,加快推进人民币替代港澳台三地货币进程。

This paper aims to investigate the presence of currency substitution in Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan for the period 2001 to 2013,based on the currency demand theory,using RMB as anchor currencies by constructing the Cointegration Equations of real money demand. This paper finds the presence of currency substitution in Hong Kong and Macao,but not in Taiwan because the real money demand functions are stable in Hong Kong and Macao,but not in Taiwan. Based on the findings,this paper finally put forward relevant policy recommendations in 4 aspects,constructing the Greater China Currency Area,constructing the exchange rate coordination mechanism and the risk pre-warning and the crisis rescue mechanism,and promoting the currency substitution process of RMB in Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan.