我国现行货币政策调控效率研究——基于近17年来数据的实证分析

The Study of the Efficiency of China's Current Monetary Policy Regulation——An Empirical Analysis Based on data from the Last 17 years

笔者以1998年~2014年的季度数据为样本,尝试采用超越函数的随机前沿分析方法来估计我国货币政策的真实效率水平。实证研究表明,经济增长和物价稳定在我国货币政策目标综合变量中具有同等的权重;较利率,货币供应量M_2对货币政策综合目标变量的影响更大;我国货币政策效率总体水平并不高,货币政策的调控效力并未得到有效发挥,政策的预设目标与实际效果之间存在较大差距。为提高货币政策的调控效率,我国的政策调控应从以下方面着手：（1）改革货币政策框架,在现有货币政策框架内尝试引入弹性通胀目标制;（2）加大对影子银行体系的监测与统计,将影子银行体系纳入货币政策调控范畴;（3）进一步推进利率和汇率形成机制改革,疏通货币政策传导机制。

Based on quarterly data from the year 1998 to 2014,this paper adopts stochastic frontier analysis（ SFA） which belongs to transcendental functions to estimate the true level of the efficiency of monetary policy. Empirical studies show that economic growth and price stability have the equal weight within the integrated variable of China＇s monetary policy. Compared to interest rate,money supply M_2 has greater impact on the integrated target variable of monetary policy. The overall level of China＇s monetary policy efficiency is not high,the regulation effect of monetary policy has not been fully used,and there is a big gap between the preset objectives of the policy and the actual results. In order to improve the efficiency of monetary policy regulation in China,the policy regulation should be adjusted in the following aspects：（ 1） to reshape of the monetary policy framework and introduce flexible inflation targeting within the existing monetary policy framework.（ 2） To further promote the reform of interest rates and dredge transmission mechanism of monetary policy.（ 3） To deepen the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,introducing more market- based mechanism.