利用NCEP/NCAR数据探寻高空颠簸高发区的方法研究

A research of measures on exploring the high-incidence areas of turbulence based on NCEP / NCAR data

基于预报效果较好的颠簸预报指数Dutton,利用美国国家环境预报中心（NCEP）和国家大气研究中心（NCAR）联合处理的再分析数据集NCEP/NCAR数据,绘制颠簸指数分布情况,对大量颠簸指数图进行统计分析,最终探寻出颠簸高发区.结果表明：1月份31日中日颠簸分布情况相似度达64%;颠簸发生的空间面积占该区域（100°~150°E,15°~60°N）约20%;严重颠簸占颠簸区域约46%,重度颠簸占颠簸区域约22%,中度颠簸占颠簸区域约32%;1月份我国（100°~150°E,15°~60°N）区域高空急流背景下颠簸高发区具体统计信息为：中度与重度颠簸高发区呈现独立零星分布,严重颠簸的高发区分布则相对集中,主要位于华北地区（110°~120°E,30°~42°N）.

As we know,the Dutton index is of better indicating capability for turbulence cases, therefore,in this essay, we aim to employ the （ NCAR / NCEP） data to draw the distribution of Dunon index, and then, to actualize the analyzing and statistics of the Dutton distribution images,finally to find out the high-incidence turbulence areas.Our conclusions are as follows ： turbulence areas account for about 20% of the region （ 1 00°- 150° E, 15°-60°N） ;severe turbulence areas account for about 46% of the bump region, severest turbulence areas account for about 22% of the turbulence areas, and moderate turbulence areas account for about 32% of the turbulence areas.Meanwhile,based on a large number of image and data statistics,we have found the high-incidence turbulence areas：On January, the moderate turbulence and the severe turbulenee areas are distributed sporadical- ly,however,the severer turbulence areas mainly cluster in the north China （110°-120°E,30°-42°N）.