怒江州滑坡地质灾害气象预警模型研究

A prediction model study on landslide in Nujiang State

根据怒江州2012—2014年87个雨量监测站点的降雨数据,首先研究降雨量及降雨过程与地质灾害空间分布的对应关系,再用信息量模型对地质灾害易发性进行静态评价.在此基础上,应用广义线性模型将动态降雨预报和静态的易发性评价结合起来,分别建立了地质-气象耦合模型和地质-降雨综合模型.实例检验并分析了2种模型,结果表明:地质-降雨综合模型的指标计算结果更具有科学性;同时地质-降雨综合模型在时间与空间的结合上更有优势;此外,地质-降雨综合模型的预警准确度较高,且在地质-降雨综合模型的预警图上除灾害当天的预警显示外,相近时间发生的灾害也有所反映.综上,地质-降雨综合模型比地质-气象耦合模型更适合怒江州滑坡地质灾害预报预警.

In light of rainfall data of the 87 weather stations from 2012 to 2014 in Nujiang,we have studied the relationship between rainfall and the spatial distribution of geological disasters and used the information model of geological hazards in the static evaluation by combining the dynamic rainfall forecast and the static proneness evaluation in generalized linear model. We have established geological-meteorological model and the geological- rainfall model.Two kinds of models have been tested and analyzed.The results show that the calculation results of the comprehensive model of geological and rainfall are more scientifically reliable ; geological and rainfall integrat- ed model also has more advantages in time and space.In addition,the relation between early warning accuracy of geological and rainfall integrated model is evident, and the help of geological and rainfall integrated model is ef- fective.In summary, geology and rainfall integrated model can serve as an effective means to forecast the landslide in Nujiang .