非传统安全视角下中国石油安全的测度及国际比较研究

A Study of China's Oil Security Measures and International Comparison Based on Non-traditional Security

随着我国石油消费规模的不断增长和对外依存度的不断提升,保障中国的石油安全成为影响国家安全和经济社会稳定发展的重要战略性问题。基于非传统安全视角,从经济安全、社会安全和环境安全三方面,选取石油自给率、战略储备规模等21个指标,对我国石油安全状况进行实证分析和国际比较研究。研究发现:在12个样本国家中,我国石油安全综合水平居于中等位置,近年来虽有所提高,但依然远低于美、日等发达国家;从石油安全的分项情况来看,与石油有关的经济安全、社会安全和环境安全水平都有所上升,其中,经济安全相对较弱,社会安全相对较好,环境安全水平居中,但环境安全水平与其他国家差距在不断扩大;从具体指标来看,影响我国石油安全的主要因素包括战略石油储备、石油消费强度、石油消费增速、石油消费碳排放强度以及可再生能源消费量占总能源消费比重。

With the continuous growth of China＇s oil consumption scale and external dependence, to protect China＇s oil security has become an important strategic issue which affects national security and social stability as well as economic development. Based on the perspective of non-traditional security, this paper selects 21 indicators such as oil self- sufficiency rate, strategic reserve scale and others to analyze China＇s oil security situation and make an international comparative research from the three areas of economic security, social security and environmental security. It finds that： the overall level of China＇s oil security lies in the middle position in 12 sample countries, but China is still well below the United States, Japan and other developed countries despite the increase in recent years; the levels of economic security, social security and environmental security are on the rise in China from the sub-case view of oil security, among which economic security is relatively weak, social security is relatively good, and environmental security is in the middle in the sample countries, but the gap of environmental security levels is expanding relative to other countries; the main factors affecting China＇s oil security from the concrete indicators are strategic oil reserves, oil consumption intensity, the growth rate of oil consumption, carbon emissions intensity from oil consumption and the proportion of renewable energy consumption in total energy consumption.