农村公共物品供给收入效应的实证分析

Income Effect of China's Rural Public Goods Supply

我国农村公共物品的供给模式对于促进农村社会进步、增加农民人均收入发挥了积极作用。基于我国农村1983—2012年相关数据,采用多元线性回归模型、协整分析、脉冲响应、方差分解等方法实证分析了农村公共物品供给的收入效应。结果显示,农村基建、科技、教育和医疗等公共物品供给与农民纯收入之间存在着显著的正相关,即上述公共物品供给每增加1%将分别引致农民纯收入增长0.09%、0.12%、0.13%和0.62%。在长期中农村公共物品供给与农民纯收入增长之间存在唯一的均衡关系。同时,在短期中科技、教育和医疗等公共物品均能有效带动农民纯收入增长,且贡献度维持在20%左右的水平,农村基建供给的收入效应还不显著,亟待做出调整和完善。

The supply mode of China rural public goods plays positive role in promoting rural society progress and improve farms＇ income.This paper selects related data of China＇s rural areas during 1983-2012,using the method of multiple linear regression model,co-integration analysis,impulse response and variance decomposition to analyze the income effect of China＇s rural public goods supply.The results show that there exists significant positive correlation between rural infrastructure,scientific technology,education and medical care supply and farmers＇ net income,namely each 1% increase for the supply of above public goods will bring farmers＇ net income growing 0.09%,0.12%,0.13% and 0.62% respectively.In the long term,there has only equilibrium relationship between public goods supply and farmers＇ net income growth.Meantime,the public goods such as scientific technology,education and medical care can effectively promote the growth of farmers＇ net income,and the contribution degree maintains the level on 20%,while rural infrastructure supply has non-significant effect on the income,which needs to be urgently readjusted.