组合预测模型在山东省地下水资源量预测中的应用

The application of the combination prediction model in forecasting ground water in Shandong province

针对山东省地下水资源量的预测,利用搜集到的山东省2000—2014年地下水资源量时间序列数据,建立了ARMA模型、灰色预测及序列拟合模型,并综合运用这3种单项预测方法建立了组合预测模型.通过比较,发现相比于各个单项预测模型,组合预测模型具有更高的精度.从预测结果来看,未来山东省地下水资源量呈现递减趋势.

For the ground water forecast in Shandong province,collecting time series data of groundwater in Shandong province in 2000—2014,and the ARMA model,grey prediction and mixed time series model were established,using comprehensively the three single forecasting method to establish the combination forecasting model.By comparison,found that compared to the single model,combination forecasting model is more accurate.According to the predicted results,underground water resources in Shandong province will decrease in the future.