基于引力模型的中国与东盟蔬菜贸易实证研究

Empirical research on vegetables trade between China and ASEAN based on the gravity model

中国蔬菜产量居世界首位,国内市场的饱和使得出口贸易对产业的发展尤为重要。东盟是目前人口最多的自贸区,也是经济最为活跃的经济体,是中国重要的贸易伙伴。2013年中国出口至东盟的蔬菜占总出口量的4.85%,占东盟同类商品进口量的32.97%,尚有发展的空间。通过构建引力模型,采用粮农组织数据库1999—2013年的面板数据,实证分析了中国与东盟蔬菜出口贸易的现状以及主要影响因素,并验证需求相似的影响。研究结果表明,东盟的经济规模和人口规模对于中国和东盟的蔬菜出口贸易扩大分别具有2.63%和0.14%的促进作用,地理位置与中国接壤也对蔬菜贸易产生正向影响;中国的经济规模和人口规模、与东盟国家的距离、人均GDP的差异对中国与东盟蔬菜出口贸易的扩大分别产生3.42%、6.42%、0.62%和0.39%的抑制作用。

Chinese vegetable production was the highest all over the world, the saturation of domestic market made export trade especially important to the development of vegetable industry. ASEAN was a free trade zone with the largest population and the most active economy, was also an important trade partner of China. In 2013, the number of China＇s vegetable export to ASEAN accounted for 4.85% of China＇s total vegetable exports, and accounted for 32.97% of ASEAN vegetable imports.There were still spaces for development. In this paper, the panel data of vegetable trade from FAOSTAT from 1999 to 2013 were used for empirical research about the main influence factors of vegetables export trade between China and ASEAN, and verified the effects of preference similarity. The results indicated that the economic scale and population scale of ASEAN was of 2.63% and 0.14% facilitation respectively to the vegetables trade between China and ASEAN, bordering with China also had a positive impact; the economic scale and population scale of China, the distance between China and ASEAN, the differencesof GDP per person was of 3.42%, 6.42%, 0.62% and 0.39% of inhibition respectively to the vegetables trade between China and ASEAN.