我国服务贸易与货物贸易关系的实证分析

运用1992—2014年我国贸易数据对服务贸易与货物贸易关系进行实证分析,其中协整分析结果表明二者之间存在长期均衡关系;基于格兰杰因果关系检验结果显示,现阶段我国货物贸易对服务贸易的发展具有推动作用,而服务贸易的发展对货物贸易的发展未产生影响。

Empirical analysis on the relationship between service trade and goods trade was made in this paper, by China＇s trade data from 1992 to 2014. Co - integration analysis shows that there is a long - term equilibrium relationship between the devel- opment of service trade and goods trade. Granger causality test shows that the development of trade in goods promoted the trade in service at the present stage, but the development of service trade did not impact on the development of the goods trade.